Iran has declared a “full-fledged war” against the US, Israel and the EU, despite decades of continuous military and proxy confrontations with the US. This raises a key question: Why has Iran now declared war on the US after more than 40 years of covert and overt confrontation?
Iran’s strategic response to shifting US foreign policy under Trump
Looking at Iran’s foreign policy narrative toward the US, two elements stand out in particular. The first is the way the US president is addressed directly by name. The second is how Iran seeks to maintain and project its strategic position.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, casually declared this war. In a post on X — which is banned in Iran — Iran’s supreme leader stated, “We will not give in to the enemy.” A few hours later, he added, “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”
Additionally, in an op-ed published in the British newspaper The Guardian, titled “You’ll never defeat us in Iran, President Trump: but with real talks, we can both win,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly addressed US President Donald Trump. This was largely due to Trump’s governing style, which bypassed traditional US foreign policy institutions and centralized decision-making within the White House, often through special envoys.
Trump’s foreign policy toward Russia and Eastern Europe was reportedly entrusted to his associate Steve Witkoff. Trump’s representative — a billionaire businessman — has effectively called the shots in Syria and the surrounding region. Trump appointed Mark Savaya, a businessman with no prior foreign policy experience, to represent him in Iraq. As a result, Iran appears to recognize that Trump is a different kind of president, one who personally shapes US foreign policy decisions. In other words, he has brought everything to the Oval Office.
Iran’s strategic position amidst US relations and sanctions
In the op-ed, Araghchi argued that Israel is a liability to the US in the region and that Trump would ultimately be better off reaching a deal with Iran. Notably, Iran only recently withdrew its commitment to the 2016 nuclear deal, despite the Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the agreement in 2018. This showed that Iran was pretty satisfied with the deal.
Iranian affairs expert and Middle East historian Dr. Arash Azizi told Fair Observer that “Iran knows that a deal with the US — avoiding war and lifting sanctions — is critical to its chances of managing domestic protests, just as a military confrontation with the US would be disastrous for it. However, it also knows that Trump dislikes weakness. So it’s trying to project some strength, ultimately hoping for a deal.”
Dr. Azizi’s comment suggests that Iran’s aggressive rhetoric may mask underlying weakness, as Tehran attempts to weather pressure from the Trump administration’s efforts to remove leaders and regimes deemed unfriendly toward Washington.
David Romano, professor of Middle East politics at Missouri State University, told Fair Observer that the declaration of war amounts to an admission that sanctions are working. He argued that Tehran is shifting blame onto external enemies rather than addressing its nuclear program, noting that it is particularly striking that Iran would include the EU among those it claims to be at war with.
A US Embassy official told Fair Observer that the declaration of war against the US and Israel indicates that the regime has effectively lost control of the narrative and that the move is largely informational. Iran may want to reach a deal, but it is attempting to do so from a position of perceived strength.
Iran’s internal turmoil: economic struggles and potential for regime change
Meanwhile, Iranians have taken to the streets in recent days to protest worsening economic conditions, widespread corruption and the country’s foreign policy direction. The government appears more responsive than during previous protest waves. Iran’s supreme leader stated that authorities would engage in dialogue with protesters but warned that rioters would be punished.
Shortly afterward, the Iranian government announced an economic relief plan that would provide each Iranian with approximately $7 per month for a limited period in an effort to curb protests. The plan involves distributing store credits to help people purchase essential food items without using cash.
Trump stated that the US would support Iranian protesters if the Iranian government were to open fire on them. The country continues to struggle with rampant corruption. Pezeshkian has repeatedly urged both the public and government officials to avoid extravagance. In a public speech, he remarked that the hall in which he was speaking did not need to be heated so intensely, noting that he was sweating under his jacket while others lacked necessities. He argued that they could save on bills by heating the hall a few degrees less.
Many observers and news outlets hint that Iran’s regime could change internally if the armed forces turn against the Supreme Leader. This happened in 1979 when the Shah’s army turned against him, and he had to flee the country. However, the current regime has taken note. Iran’s security apparatus has changed significantly since then. The country now maintains more than 18 formal and informal intelligence agencies that monitor one another to prevent a coup.
Additionally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains the most dominant military force in Iran, deeply ideologically committed to the supreme leader’s vision. Its cadres are regularly trained in the regime’s interpretation of Islam and its strategic goals. Even in the event of regime collapse, those who would inherit the system would likely be individuals raised and shaped by the Islamic Republic itself.
As of January 2026, Iran has experienced approximately nine major nationwide protest waves since 2016 — almost one per year. Many of these protests have turned violent, as large segments of the population struggle to secure basic necessities such as food, fuel and medicine.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is likely facing its most severe crisis since its establishment in 1979. Having lost many of its allies and proxies across the region, the focus has now shifted inward. The messaging from Iran’s leadership only reinforces how fragile the regime has become. Declaring war against the US, Israel and the EU appears to be an attempt to manage and deflect attention from an escalating internal crisis.
Countries often make deals after prolonged confrontation. The remaining — and perhaps most important — question is whether the Trump administration ultimately wants a deal with Iran.
[Kaitlyn Diana edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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