Fair Observer’s Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Professor Leonardo Vivas of Lesley University about a sharp escalation in US–Venezuela tensions following the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean. They examine why US President Donald Trump’s administration is increasing pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whether military conflict is imminent and how Venezuelans themselves are likely to respond if events turn violent.
US–Venezuela tensions
Khattar Singh opens by asking what has pushed the standoff into potentially military territory. Vivas situates the crisis in a broader geopolitical context. He argues that Trump is attempting to reshape international rules and create a more compliant strategic space in the Americas, while simultaneously addressing what Washington sees as the growing influence of narcotics trafficking across the region.
Vivas stresses that Venezuela is different from Latin American countries like Colombia or Mexico. There, drug cartels are private organizations. In Venezuela, the state itself links together criminal networks involving narcotics, gold smuggling and armed groups. Senior military figures are embedded in this system, often described as the Cártel de los Soles (“Cartel of the Suns”). Removing Maduro, in this view, would both strike a regional criminal network “in the head” and eliminate its political coordinator.
Conflict around the corner?
The situation has seen dramatic public signaling. Trump has demanded airspace restrictions over Venezuela, while Maduro has staged televised rallies alongside armed civilians. Yet Vivas cautions against assuming that war is inevitable. He describes the Trump administration as a loose coalition: Some actors want full regime change, others are focused narrowly on dismantling criminal networks.
Trump’s negotiating style matters here. Vivas notes that Trump often escalates rhetorically or economically before backing into talks, suggesting the confrontation could still end at the bargaining table. As he puts it, “Every day that goes by tends to reinforce… this possibility that there is no attack.” Simultaneously, negotiations are exceptionally difficult because Maduro cannot safely relinquish power while facing potential International Criminal Court indictments and the absence of reliable international safe havens.
Maduro’s options
Khattar Singh presses Vivas on how Maduro is reading the moment. Vivas describes him as a political survivor who has weathered sanctions, diplomatic isolation, the hemisphere’s worst economic collapse in decades and a mass exodus of nearly nine million Venezuelans. Maduro’s regional allies are dwindling, but Vivas believes the regime is betting that US pressure is largely a bluff.
According to Vivas, Maduro’s core assumption is that Washington will not deploy boots on the ground and that military threats are a “poker face.” That calculation has, for now, reinforced discipline within the armed forces. A coup remains unlikely because the military was deliberately fragmented — an architecture designed with Cuban assistance to prevent coordinated action unless a rupture emerges at the very top.
Rubio’s role
The discussion turns to US domestic politics. Vivas argues that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been unusually influential because he has fused the political case for restoring democracy with the criminal case against Venezuela’s alleged narco-state. In the current institutional turbulence inside Washington, Rubio has the advantage.
Still, kinetic decisions ultimately rest with the military. Rubio is not a soldier, and once planning moves from rhetoric to execution, generals determine what is feasible, how fast it could happen and at what cost. Political pressure may shape intent, but operational realities constrain outcomes.
US military action?
Khattar Singh asks whether limited strikes are plausible. Vivas downplays Venezuela’s military capacity, describing militias as largely symbolic and regular forces as poorly equipped, with aging aircraft and unreliable air defenses. He suggests that targeted actions — such as strikes on illegal gold operations in the south, which generate major off‑the‑books revenue — would be difficult for Venezuela’s capital of Caracas to counter.
Such moves would not require an invasion and could be framed as attacks on criminal infrastructure rather than the country itself. Whether Washington chooses that path depends partly on Trump’s domestic pressures and his need for a visible foreign policy win.
What Venezuelans feel
Vivas believes public sentiment inside Venezuela is bleak but pragmatic. Credible surveys suggest most Venezuelans want Maduro gone and would not view strikes on regime infrastructure as attacks on the nation. After opposition victories were overridden, he argues, the government lost legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens.
The prevailing mood, Vivas says, is cautious resignation rather than mobilization. There is little appetite for defending the regime, and many in the military are in a “wait and see” posture, calculating which way events will break.
What if Maduro is ousted?
If Maduro falls, Vivas warns, the hardest work begins. Venezuela faces enormous debt, nonexistent economic data and shattered institutions. Any stabilization would require reconstructing basic statistics before engaging the International Monetary Fund, preserving parts of the military not implicated in war crimes and negotiating with governors, most of whom remain aligned with chavismo — the political system and ideology established by former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.
Vivas anticipates a transitional government rather than an immediate handover to last year’s elected leadership, followed by complex, multi‑track negotiations over courts, prosecutors, elections and security. Events are moving fast, he concludes, and assessments could change overnight as pressure continues to build.
[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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