Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “two red lines” hold the key to the new Syrian government’s legitimization with the West — immediate demilitarization south of Damascus and protection of the Syrian Druze. The aftermath of the recent clashes in Suwayda catalyzed negotiations in Paris and Baku over the last couple of weeks.
Israel recently launched strikes on Damascus after sectarian violence escalated in the south, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, including an American citizen visiting his parents, in Suwayda province, before the conflicting parties quickly broke the ceasefire.
Furthermore, the new American ally and President of Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, did not warmly welcome Netanyahu’s announcement outlining a takeover of Syrian land south of Damascus due to the violence. Representatives from both countries recently met in Paris regarding the issue, where Syrian unity was deemed nonnegotiable and demands for Israeli withdrawal went unanswered.
Though the US doubled down in support for Syria’s renaissance and its own role as intermediary for Israel, Special Envoy Tom Barrack recommends that Jolani “recalibrate his policies and embrace a more inclusive approach.” This also prompted a generic statement from the US State Department, serving more as a formality to the American victim’s family and growing concern among various institutions.
With no “plan B” to Jolani, his failure to contain the barbaric attacks on minorities in Syria directly threatens the new regime’s legitimacy as it raises concerns from its newfound partners in the West, hinders potential talks of normalization and reinforces Israel’s defensive position that counters America’s stance in the region.
Internal dynamics
Jolani’s weak control over Syria’s several factions erodes public trust in its so-called path to democratic governance, enables bloodshed across the country and proves that a new stage name, haircut and suit are not enough to shed a violent past. To avoid the risk of a second collapse, the terrorist organization Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS) must be held accountable for its persecution of minorities and ultimately expelled from the country.
Civil tension due to clashing internal demographics has resulted in ongoing oppression and an impending climax between Syria’s largest factions: HTS, the Kurdish-dominated and American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Druze militia and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Though Damascus signed an agreement to integrate the SDF into new Syrian institutions, it may serve as a delayed collapse at best, given the Kurdish group’s calls for federalism and sovereignty that state representatives view as a “separatist” movement.
Furthermore, recent clashes and delays in transferring control to the energy distribution sector reveal a lack of trust in the new deal, which ongoing instability in other parts of the country continues to undermine. Talks between the Kurds and Syrian officials were set up in Paris this past weekend, but Damascus backed out at the last minute due to pressure from Turkey.
In HTS-controlled Idlib, Christian clergy are still not allowed to walk in public with their clergy uniform or anything that identifies them as priests. At the same time, the new administration also implemented a law requiring all women to wear burkinis (conservative Islamic swimwear for women) at all public beaches and pools, signifying a step backwards for freedom after the ousting of Assad.
The deadly escalation between the Druze and local Bedouin tribes in Suwayda brought special attention to the unhinged nature of the new regime. It precipitated military intervention from Israel, which ended with a state-led evacuation of Bedouins from the province — a desperate response to halt Netanyahu’s attacks on Damascus and grasp the little stability left in the region.
Rumors suggest that a secret committee, led by Jolani’s brother Kazem, is working to rebuild Syria’s economy, raising additional fears that another is simply replacing Assad’s oligarchy. The committee allegedly still includes companies and businesspeople from the Assad era to ensure uninterrupted cash flow and control, risking chances of economic success through continued hypocrisy and corruption.
Impact on regional diplomacy
Though Jolani has done a decent job in the diplomatic realm — renewing relations with the West, United Nations and some neighboring Gulf countries — foreign engagement and investment will only be as stable as Syria’s internal population.
The EU and US granted the original lifting of sanctions based on the promise to establish rights for minorities and form more stable civil relations in Syria. Greece and Cyprus originally blocked EU efforts to boost the new regime’s economy in fear of the ethnic killings, kidnappings, arbitrary arrests, torture and continued oppression that have unfolded since.
France and Germany refuse to contribute funds or declare complete normalization until they see a truly diverse political structure established. Egypt’s El-Sisi, facing his own instability, is cautious towards legitimizing the new Syria for fear of being next.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also initially exercised restraint to monitor the developing Islamist power before engaging in formal diplomatic visits. Jolani must first address the warring factions and establish democratic freedoms, as external diplomacy cannot succeed without these foundational elements.
Ongoing violence and Netanyahu’s conditional intervention threaten Saudi Arabia’s recent $6.4 billion investment pledge to a unified Syria. The ramifications of the investments may experience a delay similar to that of the Saudi-Syrian Business Council, which was originally planned for June and postponed due to the Twelve-Day War.
Syria’s successful return to the global stage through post-war reconstruction partly relies on the return of refugees, who also await more stable social and infrastructural conditions. Normalization with Assad’s Syria in its return to the Arab League in 2023 kick-started a new era, tested by its new government over one year later.
Since 2011, the conflict has displaced over 13 million people, leaving many homes and businesses destroyed and discouraging the diaspora from returning. Though external investment and engagement are crucial for Syria’s reconstruction, Jolani can only attract that reality with a truly inclusive and free environment for the domestic population.
Israel’s security dilemma
Historically, Israel has mobilized to combat possible security threat scenarios in the bordering region. Now, with recent persecution of minorities in the south, Netanyahu must weigh the return of diplomatic engagement versus isolation and the risks of solo intervention under the guise of Israel’s national security.
Domestic fragility under Jolani further complicates Israel’s security and fortifies its defensive positioning in southern Syria, fuels Netanyahu’s disputed control of the Golan Heights and ultimately jeopardizes rumored negotiations for normalization that materialized from borrowed airspace during the Twelve Day War.
Broadcast executions across the country also complicate Syria’s newfound relations with the US and the greater West, prompting the UN to release a disclaimer denouncing the summary executions just months after it welcomed special envoy Bassam Sabbagh to a security council briefing.
Jolani’s early promises of moderation and inclusivity in the new Syria have yet to materialize, as his government clearly aims for a future in the opposite direction. The publicized notion to create a system with “no single ruler [making] arbitrary decisions” was lost as soon as he assumed control of every pillar of government, passing an “interim” constitution granting him executive, legislative, and judicial authority for five years.
Jolani must now rein in his HTS counterparts from their killing sprees to cultivate true stability within and outside his borders. Without stability at home, Syria’s regime risks both international isolation and regional blowback — as its instability prompts Israeli military recalibration and an uncertain future.
[Liam Roman edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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